Essays on Return Predictability and Volatility Estimation
نویسندگان
چکیده
of the Dissertation Essays on Return Predictability and Volatility Estimation
منابع مشابه
Investigating the Impact of Time-varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Indices on the Predictability of Optimal Stock Portfolio Return in Tehran Stock Exchange
In this study, 3 models of Time-Varying Parameters (TVP), Dynamic Model Selection (DMS) and Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and a comparison with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method in MATLAB in the time period 2003-2013 (with data on a monthly basis) are discussed. In the present study, the variables of unofficial exchange rate changes, interest rate changes and inflation in oil price foreca...
متن کاملInvestigating the Impact of Time-varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Indices on the Predictability of Optimal Stock Portfolio Return in Tehran Stock Exchange
In this study, 3 models of Time-Varying Parameters (TVP), Dynamic Model Selecting (DMS) and Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and their comparison via the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method in MATLAB in the time period 2003-2013 (monthly) are discussed. In the present study the variables of unofficial exchange rate changes, interest rate changes and inflation oil price forecast returns for stocks ...
متن کاملStock Return and Cash Flow Predictability: The Role of Volatility Risk∗
We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the variance risk premium positively forecast both short-horizon returns and dividend growth rates. We also conf...
متن کاملEssays in Asset Pricing
In the first chapter ``Gold, Platinum, and Expected Stock Returns'', I show that the ratio of gold to platinum prices (GP) reveals variation in risk and proxies for an important economic state variable. GP predicts future stock returns in the time-series and explains variation in average stock returns in the cross-section. GP outperforms existing predictors and similar patterns are found in int...
متن کاملPricing Stock Market Volatility: Does It Matter Whether the Volatility Is Related to the Business Cycle? by
Given two virtually separate literatures on return predictability and the risk-return relation, this paper reconciles the two literatures by investigating the underlying mechanism of the return predictability literature through exploiting the risk-return relation. In developing an empirical model to examine the business cycles-risk-return relationship, we consider the fact that market volatilit...
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تاریخ انتشار 2008